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Epidemiology of Sudden Unexpected Death in Infancy: Evidence from the London Metropolitan Police Project Indigo Investigation

The London Metropolitan Police in collaboration with medical personnel, study all sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) <2 years in their jurisdiction, to identify suspicious cases for further investigation. The 2005-2010 Project Indigo includes extensive data on all such non-suspicious cases. Deidentified data on age and gender of 477 infants dying a natural unexpected-sudden death in London were gathered for statistical analyses, for comparison to our published a priori probability models that predict their distributions without need of superfluous information, such as race, autopsy findings, or SUDI risk factors. The total observed male fraction of 0.5639 for all these 477 Indigo cases (269 male) is predicted using a recessive X-linkage model for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) as 0.5676. The transformed age distribution of all 477 Indigo cases of different causes of death is modeled by a single four-parameter lognormal distribution, y = Log [(d + 9.44)/(1254 – d)] = μ + σ z, where d is Indigo age in calendar days of life (d = DOD – DOB ≥ 0), median μ = -1.085, slope σ = 0.543, and z is a standard normal deviate.
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